SYRIA: THE CARNAGE CONTINUES, REBEL PROSPECTS DIMINISH, U.S RELUCTANTLY LOOKS AT INTERVENTON OPTIONS
It appears that the rebel coalition opposing the regime of Bashar al-Assad is disintegrating, and that radical elements associated with Sunni extremism and Al Qaeda are increasingly dominating the coalition. As ForeignPolicy.com recently warned, “There are more signs that Al-Qaeda is dominating anti-Assad forces.” Rebel forces recently scored a few successes in the north, attacking and seizing an air base. The Syrian Opposition Coalition, said the airbase had been ‘liberated’ by a mixture of nine rebel groups. They included the al Qaida-affiliated Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria, or ISIS, and its Syrian sister organization, the Nusra Front.”
But here’s what’s significant about it: “Those rebels included multiple units affiliated with the Syrian Military Council, an umbrella group with U.S. backing. That poses an uncomfortable pairing of a group supported by U.S. resources with Islamist organizations Washington has labeled as terrorist.”
The dominance of extremist groups with the Coalition has led to Michael Morell, the outgoing #2 at the CIA, to declare that the volatile mix of Al Qaeda radicalism and the civil war poses the single greatest threat to U.S. national security! For Morell, the risk is that the Syrian government, which possesses chemical and other advanced weapons, collapses, and the country becomes AQ’s latest haven, supplanting Pakistan. The violence in Syria, Morell says, has the real potential to spill over onto Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.
Morell and others have fretted about the increasing numbers of “foreign fighters” flowing into Syria, and joining—and dominating—the rebel coalition. Many of the militants belong to the Al-Nusra Front, but others are forming under the banner of the more extremist umbrella group, the ISIS. There have been more clashes of late between jihadist groups and more secular forces within the rebel army, with the latter more and more on the defensive.
The spillover of violence into Lebanon is accelerating. A country with long-simmering sectarian tensions, Lebanon is experiencing more instability, much of that escalated by the conflict across the border in Syria. The heavily armed, Iranian-backed Hezbollah has drawn criticism and opposition to its decisive involvement in Syria on behalf of the Assad government. At the same time, and in response, radical Sunni groups have become more powerful and mobilized, subsidized heavily by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The four major Lebanese sects—Shia, Sunni, Druze and Christians—are all preparing for intensified conflict.
The Assad regime’s hold on power is being challenged, but the rebel groups are insufficiently united to take advantage of the fraying. The country remains united only in theory—indeed, in many ways it has already disintegrated as a coherent entity, with three distinct parts emerging. The regime holds a firm grip on a corridor running from the southern border with Jordan through the capital of Damascus and up the Mediterranean coast. The primarily Sunni rebels control a chunk of territory that spans Aleppo and other provinces in the north, stretching along the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border. Finally, tucked into the far northeastern corner, a Kurdish minority—wary of all groups—enjoys semi autonomy.
Dr. John Jandali’s Pessimistic View of the Crisis
We asked Syrian-born and Mideast expert Dr. John Jandali to provide his observations on the state of the conflict and the future of both the Assad regime and the rebel coalition. Here is John’s analysis:
Here are some facts to consider:
1: The Assad regime is in control of most of the country, except for some parts of the North, and with the Iranian and Hezbollah military and technical support and “boots on the ground”, the regime is getting ready to wipe out the opposition forces in Aleppo ( North) and Deir-el-Zor (East).
2: The major urban centers in Syria have been devastated, and their infra-structure seriously damaged. More than 100,000 killed, nearly a million and a half people took refuge in neighboring countries, and more than four million people have been displaced.
3: The opposition forces lack unity and common purpose; they are already at a stage where they are fighting each other for dominance and control of territory. Al-Qaida-Iraq has planted its roots among the opposition forces, and aims at prevailing, and eventually eliminating the secular wings and imposing a radical Islamist government on Syria. The Islamists are better armed and trained than their secular counterparts, and have been credited with the major strikes inflicted on regime forces. The Saudi and other Gulf State military assistance given to the secular group- -the Free Syrian Army- -seems to have had very little impact in their ability to bring the Islamists under their control.
4: Any US or Western aid to the opposition forces may be “too little, too late” in turning the tide of war. Time is on the side of the Assad regime, which, at the cost of totally destroying what is left of the country’s cities and population centers, is set to kill and eliminate what is left of the opposition forces.
5: Clearly, a negotiated political solution is the only way out of this civil war. But, while Assad is willing to go to Geneva to negotiate from a position of strength, opposition leaders see themselves at a great bargaining disadvantage and are reluctant to support negotiations. And, there is the question of who will represent the opposition at such a conference, and what concessions, if any, is the opposition leadership willing to make. The result of all this is that the political option remains in limbo.
6: In hindsight, we probably should have pushed for a negotiated solution long before now, long before the death of 100,000 people, and long before Assad got the upper hand in the conflict. And maybe we missed the golden opportunity of negotiating with the Russians on the Syrian crisis, and perhaps making some concessions that could have accommodated their security and political interests in the region . This could have been a small price to pay for reaching a solution and reconstructing a government representing all factions in Syria. But now, the fight continues, and the Assad regime, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, is beginning to see the light at the end of this dark tunnel and is already planning to solidify its hold on the country and reign over a state in which there will be no opposition or dissent.
You may think that this is a very pessimistic view of the end of this crisis, but I believe it is an accurate assessment of things to come.
A very sad and painful future for Syria and the region.
- John Jandali
What can and should the U.S. do? The Pentagon is not enthused about any option
Finally, to the question of what should the U.S. and the West do given the deteriorating situation? As you all know, the U.S. military leadership, the Congress and American public opinion have been very wary of intervention beyond providing some aid and materiel to the non-AQ elements of the rebel coalition. Now, under pressure from some in Congress and in the national punditry, the Pentagon has been asked to provide a list of military options for the U.S. to consider with respect to the Syrian civil war.
However, the Pentagon clearly submitted the list against its own judgment. The Chairman of the JCS, GEN Martin Dempsey, stated bluntly that any intervention would cost billions of dollars and carry significant risk. The Chairman warned of “unintended consequences” and the danger of deeper involvement that would be difficult to avoid.
Dempsey laid our five military options, including arming and training opposition fighters, conducting airstrikes, imposing a no-fly zone, seizing chemical weapons and “boots on the ground”. He stated that any such intervention would be considered an “act of war”, and that the administration and Congress should fully consider the ramifications of any escalation of assistance or military action.
Given the pessimistic analyses by Jandali, other experts, and the Chairman, anyone have any bright ideas?
Ty